ANNUAL CONGRESS 2025

Urban Rail Transit Usage in Developing Countries: The Case of Istanbul

Not scheduled

20m

Yildiz Technical University, Istanbul

Oral Track 03 | MOBILITY

Speaker

Metin Senbil (Gazi University)

Description

This study examines urban rail transit usage in Istanbul, offering critical insights into the challenges faced by developing countries in integrating transit infrastructure with rapid urbanization. Using regression models based on the node and place characteristics of rail stations (Bertolini, 1996), the research evaluates factors influencing passenger dynamics at rail stations between 2017 and 2022. Despite Istanbul's significant rail network expansion and public investment (Newman & Kenworthy, 2015), only a subset of stations exhibited concurrent increases in passenger usage and population. These findings reflect the need for tailored urban planning approaches in developing contexts.
The study employs three models—the Node Model, Restricted Node-Place Model, and Node-Place Model—to analyze rail station performance using panel data. Key results demonstrate the importance of node characteristics, such as transfer opportunities, in determining passenger volumes. Stations offering multiple transfer options observed passenger numbers more than double the average, underlining the critical role of network integration. Conversely, place variables, including population density and employment within station catchment areas, displayed inconsistent significance. For example, in the Node-Place Model (2022), both population and employment variables showed positive associations with passenger volumes. However, across multiple time points, these variables failed to produce significant results in panel regression analyses. These outcomes suggest that while station characteristics are critical, other factors—such as socio-economic shifts, land-use changes, and urban dynamics—play a significant role in shaping transit usage (Cervero, 2013).
The study also uncovers differences in usage patterns between rail types. Marmaray suburban rail and light rail transit stations experienced 10% and 40% lower passenger volumes, respectively, compared to metro stations, reflecting disparities in service standards. Additionally, station proximity to city centers (as measured by the number of intermediate stations) significantly influenced passenger values, emphasizing the centrality of urban cores in transit dynamics. Interestingly, while Istanbul's rail investments have enhanced network accessibility, only 27 station areas (19.71%) showed simultaneous increases in population and passenger values during the study period. In contrast, over 65% of station areas experienced population declines, with a substantial number losing passengers as well.
The results highlight Istanbul’s struggle to align its rapid "railization" (Gökçe, 2024) with broader urban transformation processes. Urban sprawl, accelerated motorization, and uneven land-use development further exacerbate these challenges (Gakenheimer, 1999). The findings suggest that stations in Istanbul are often treated as isolated nodes within the network, rather than integral components of the urban fabric. This approach limits their potential to drive sustainable urban development, as seen in other global examples of successful TOD, such as Bogotá and Curitiba (Cervero & Kockelman, 2008).
The study underscores the need for a comprehensive planning approach that integrates rail transit with land use and urban development strategies (Bertolini et al., 2008). Rail stations should not only facilitate mobility but also act as catalysts for sustainable, inclusive urban growth. Institutional inefficiencies, socio-economic inequities, and fragmented urban governance must be addressed to maximize the socio-economic and environmental benefits of rail investments. Policymakers are encouraged to adopt strategies that strengthen regulatory frameworks, promote equitable access to transit, and enhance station area development to foster vibrant, livable urban environments.
Istanbul’s experience offers valuable lessons for other developing cities, particularly those undergoing rapid urban transformation. The weak correlation between population changes and transit usage observed in this study reflects the complexity of urban dynamics in developing contexts. Future research should focus on unpacking these dynamics, exploring the role of factors such as institutional reforms in shaping transit behavior.
The study concludes that achieving this alignment requires a paradigm shift, where rail transit is not only planned as a transport mode but also as a critical driver of urban transformation.