Speakers
Description
Global climate change has led to an increase in extreme heat events, which significantly impacts urban mobility, particularly bike-sharing systems. While considerable research has focused on the effects of the physical environment on urban mobility resilience (UMR), few studies have addressed the socio-economic impacts, and even fewer have examined the combined influence of both systems. This study explores the comprehensive effects of the physical environment and socio-economic systems on the UMR of bike-sharing in Shanghai during extreme heat events, using machine learning and an unbiased data-driven approach known as Accumulated Local Effects (ALE).
The study introduces a novel method to quantify UMR by calculating the ratio of bike usage during heat to normal usage in a given spatial unit. A range of physical and socio-economic factors are incorporated into the analysis. Methodologically, LightGBM models are applied to assess UMR in relation to physical and socio-economic systems separately, followed by an integrated model that combines both systems to analyze their joint impact on UMR. The study not only explores the numerical relationships but also examines the spatial distribution patterns of UMR. Results show that the integrated model provides stronger explanatory power, revealing significant coupling between the physical and socio-economic systems in determining UMR.
Key findings include: (1) Resident class significantly impacts UMR of bike-sharing. Affluent residents, who often live in areas with ample greenery and larger housing units, are less reliant on bike-sharing during extreme heat, preferring more comfortable transport modes such as private cars. Conversely, less affluent residents, especially those in areas with low economic activity and high building density, depend more on bike-sharing, even during extreme heat. (2) High-quality and accessible consumption areas positively influence UMR. Areas with high consumption quality, such as popular restaurants, attract more cycling trips even in extreme heat. Urban sub-centers, with their abundant job opportunities and short travel distances, further support high UMR, particularly on hot weekdays, underscoring the role of economic consumption in enhancing urban mobility resilience. (3) Functional facilities, particularly large buildings in densely populated areas, boost UMR by encouraging cycling during heat events. However, old urban areas often suffer from inadequate bike-sharing infrastructure and poor accessibility, which undermine resilience, especially under extreme heat. In areas with high public transport density, competition between bike-sharing and other transport modes may arise, as people tend to opt for walking or public transport in extreme heat. (4) Adequate public spaces play a crucial role in mitigating high urban temperatures, promoting cycling in hot conditions, and enhancing UMR. Parks and well-developed public transport systems are especially beneficial for affluent residents in supporting cycling on weekends. Furthermore, public spaces with cultural or historical significance, such as those in downtown areas, can stimulate bike-sharing usage, benefiting both residents and tourists through accessible, leisure-oriented spaces. (5) Population density plays a crucial role in enhancing UMR. In area with low-rise buildings and larger rental areas, increased population density can promote resilience by fostering a neighborhood atmosphere, which encourages higher bike-sharing usage, particularly on weekends.
To improve UMR, the study suggests enhancing cycling infrastructure, including bike lanes and easily accessible bike-sharing stations, and integrating the bike-sharing system into the broader public mobility network. Urban planning should focus on the balanced distribution of high-quality consumption areas, green spaces, and multifunctional spaces, while optimizing connectivity between cultural hubs and considering building morphology to mitigate heat and enhance comfort. Special attention should be given to regenerating infrastructure in older downtown areas and promoting sustainable mobility in affluent areas. This research provides new insights into the complex mechanisms that influence UMR and offers valuable recommendations for urban governance and climate adaptation strategies.
References
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| Keywords | Urban mobility resilience; Extreme heat; Physical environment; socio-economic; Bike-Sharing |
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| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
