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Car-restrictive policy measures such as low-traffic zones and car-free streets are increasingly implemented as cities seek to address challenges related to congestion, air pollution and climate change (Da Schio et al. 2023). While these measures aim to create more sustainable and livable urban environments, their implementation often sparks intense public and political debate. Transport stands out as a pervasive and pressing conflict in local politics (Paterson, 2007), with citizens and other sectors of society often actively resisting car-restrictive policies (Marquet et al. 2024a). This resistance contributes to a strong reluctance among policymakers to implement measures curbing car use (Unruh, 2000).
Lanzendorf et al. (2023) assert that the challenge lies not only in devising effective measures but also in garnering stronger public acceptance for the introduction of car-restrictive policies. Consequently, 'the public’ becomes an increasingly influential and active participant in the ongoing debate. While the public tends to accept pull measures more easily (for instance, dedicated bicycle infrastructure and increased public transport provision), politically, push measures are much more challenging to implement. Hence, public acceptance often plays a pivotal role in determining the success of these policies, and if these can even be implemented in the first place.
The introduction of such policies can influence public opinion and, subsequently, electoral outcomes. Political parties advocating circulation measures may face backlash from segments of the electorate opposed to the changes, while others may gain support for their commitment to traffic safety and urban well-being. These dynamics raise questions about the interplay between public acceptance, policy outcomes, and political accountability.
Against this backdrop, this paper aims to contribute to the emerging work (e.g. Marquet et al. 2024b) questioning the electoral impacts of implemented car-restrictive measures. By analyzing two cities in Belgium (Ghent and Leuven) where low-traffic zones were recently adopted, we examine the electoral performance of the Greens, the political party most strongly associated with it. As such, we seek to understand whether such policies contribute to electoral gains or losses. By means of election results at the level of statistical wards, combined with a set of socio-economic characteristics, car ownership and built environment characteristics, we analyse to what extent the Green party has gained or lost at the municipal elections of October 2024. We hypothesize that higher car ownership and use is associated with lower votes for the Greens. Higher bicycle ownership, higher education level and age is expected to positively affect a vote for the Green party. In the paper, we test whether the Green party received more or fewer votes than would be expected based on the selected variables. By comparing the observed electoral results with the predictions derived from the statistical model, we assess if the adoption of low-traffic zones influences voter behaviour beyond what socio-economic and other relevant variables would suggest.
References
da Schio N., Van Eenoo, E., Caset, F., Vanparys L., Bartiaux, F., Luppari, E., Ermans, T., Verbeek, T., Wayens, B., Boussauw, K., Maciejewska, M., Bothof, S., Te Boveldt, G., Cassiers, T. & Hantson, M. (2023). Why and how we should mainstream social justice in the car-restrictive policy agenda. In: BSI Position Papers, no 6, 13/11/2023.
Lanzendorf, M., Baumgartner, A., & Klinner, N. (2024). Do citizens support the transformation of urban transport? Evidence for the acceptability of parking management, car lane conversion and road closures from a German case study. Transportation, 51(6), 2073-2101.
Marquet, O., Anguelovski, I., Nello-Deakin, S., & Honey-Rosés, J. (2024a). Decoding the 15-Minute City Debate: Conspiracies, Backlash, and Dissent in Planning for Proximity. Journal of the American Planning Association, 91(1), 117-125.
Marquet, O., Fernández Núñez, M.-B., & Maciejewska, M. (2024b). The political price of superblocks. Electoral outcomes of sustainable transport interventions in Barcelona. Environment International, 189, 108789.
Paterson, M. (2007), Automobile Politics, Cambridge Books.
Unruh, G. C. (2000). Understanding carbon lock-in. Energy policy, 28(12), 817-830.
| Keywords | car-restrictive policy; public acceptance; election; case study |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
