Speaker
Description
The global crises of climate change, resource scarcity, and public health have profoundly reshaped the operational logic of urban spaces and the spatiotemporal patterns of transportation networks. Urban mobility systems must not only adhere to sustainability goals but also enhance resilience to uncertainty. In China, severe mismatches in the supply and demand of public transportation persist, as conventional planning methods fail to address dynamic demands and complex socio-spatial variables. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of diversified mobility options—such as shared mobility, electric vehicles, and autonomous technologies—has redefined the role of public transit within urban systems. This study reexamines the foundational role of public transportation within an adaptive planning framework, seeking to provide scientific insights to address supply-demand imbalances through theoretical innovation and methodological advancements.
This research addresses three core questions: What are the theoretical shifts required for adaptive planning under global crises? How can the key attributes of adaptive planning be characterized? What role does public transportation play in this framework? By conducting a systematic literature review, the study synthesizes the core concepts and developmental trajectories of adaptive planning, offering a context-specific theoretical definition that bridges Chinese and European planning perspectives.
Focusing on public buses as a case study, the research examines its evolving foundational role amid the proliferation of diversified mobility modes and investigates the structural causes of supply-demand mismatches. It integrates the dynamics of collaboration and competition among multiple transport modes into the planning process, expanding the boundaries of traditional transit planning paradigms. A representative Chinese city is selected for empirical analysis, employing a combination of quantitative models and qualitative methods to assess supply-demand matching and its influencing factors. The study develops a multi-dimensional evaluation system—including metrics for accessibility, equity, and resilience—to systematically assess the operational performance of public buses systems. The results inform the construction of an adaptive planning framework aimed at achieving dynamic supply-demand alignment and offering actionable decision-making support.
The findings reveal that traditional efficiency-driven planning paradigms are insufficient to address increasingly complex urban challenges under planetary crises. Public transportation remains irreplaceable as the backbone of urban mobility, yet it requires collaborative innovations in planning and operation to align with other mobility modes. Adaptive planning must move beyond static optimization, emphasizing dynamic responsiveness and multi-dimensional collaboration to bolster urban resilience against uncertainty. This study proposes a “resilience-oriented adaptive transit planning framework” centered on: (1) multi-level governance mechanisms to foster inter-modal coordination; (2) data-driven dynamic response systems to enhance service flexibility; and (3) equity-focused evaluation systems to ensure the fair distribution of transportation resources.
By embedding the principles of dynamic adjustment into supply-demand matching, this framework enhances system efficiency, user satisfaction, and resilience against both immediate disruptions and long-term trends. Theoretical advancements and empirical findings contribute to the global academic discourse on adaptive planning, offering a unified framework that integrates technological innovation, institutional reforms, and social equity. These insights provide practical solutions for the sustainable development of ground public transit and the systemic optimization of urban mobility.
Adaptive planning plays a significant role in addressing complex urban issues and has become an important direction leading the theoretical transformation of global urban and transportation planning. Future research should explore the transformative impact in the context of digital innovation, climate change, and urban disparities between the Global North and South, extending its relevance beyond transportation to broader urban systems.
References
Novalia, W., Malekpour, S., 2020. Theorising the role of crisis for transformative adaptation. Environ. Sci. Policy 112, 361–370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.07.009
Pelling, M., O’Brien, K., Matyas, D., 2015. Adaptation and transformation. Clim. Change 133, 113–127. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1303-0
Thomas Machiels, Robert Goodspeed, Tine Compernolle, Tom Coppens, 2023. Creating Flexible Plans for an Uncertain Future: From Exploratory Scenarios to Adaptive Plans With Real Options. Plan. Theory Pract. https://doi.org/10.1080/14649357.2023.2220701
Wall, T.A., Walker, W.E., Marchau, V.A.W.J., Bertolini, L., 2015. Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San-Francisco-Bay-Area Case Study. J. Infrastruct. Syst. 21, 5015004. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000257
| Keywords | Adaptive Planning;Mobility Crisis;Public Transportation;Buses;Evaluation System;Sustainable Development |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
