Speaker
Description
The increasing frequency, intensity, and global impact of natural disasters in recent years has heightened the urgency for effective disaster management and recovery strategies. Among these disasters, earthquakes are particularly concerning due to their potentially devastating and unpredictable consequences, which can result in substantial loss of life and property on a global scale. Examining approximately 100 major earthquakes worldwide since 1900 reveals that 93% of global deaths from natural disasters are attributable to earthquakes, underscoring their profound global significance. Türkiye, situated in a seismically active region, faces elevated earthquake risk. This was tragically illustrated by two major earthquakes measuring 7.8 and 7.5 on the Richter scale that struck Kahramanmaraş on February 6, 2023, within a span of just nine hours. These unprecedented events claimed more than 50,000 lives and deeply affected 13.5 million people in 11 cities, including Kahramanmaraş, Hatay, Adana, Gaziantep, Kilis, Osmaniye, Adıyaman, Şanlıurfa, Malatya, Diyarbakır, and Elazığ. Consequently, a significant portion of the affected population was forced to seek refuge in other regions, exacerbating the socio-economic and infrastructural challenges in the aftermath of the disaster. In this context, post-disaster population mobility emerges as a critical coping strategy to address the basic needs of affected communities. Such mobility encompasses different patterns, including temporary and permanent displacement, relocation, and return. A comprehensive understanding of the spatial and socio-economic factors driving these movements is crucial to accelerate recovery processes and inform resilience-oriented policies. Despite its importance, a significant knowledge gap exists regarding the relationship between mobility and social, economic, and environmental indicators, particularly in Türkiye, using post-earthquake human mobility data and analysis.
This study aims to analyze the spatial and socio-economic characteristics of population flows following the February 6, 2023, earthquakes. Its specific objectives are threefold: (1) to identify the attractive triggers influencing population movement, (2) to emphasize the importance of incorporating post-disaster mobility into recovery strategies, and (3) to provide a comprehensive understanding of the relationships between post-disaster mobility and social, economic, and environmental indicators. The analysis focuses on the cities receiving population flows from the earthquake-affected regions and examines economic (GDP per capita, house prices/rents, unemployment rates, sectoral employment distribution), demographic/social (education level, age groups, population density, urbanization rate), and environmental (earthquake risk level, distance to the earthquake zone, climate classification, average temperature, annual rainfall, and sunshine duration) characteristics. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was employed to analyze the spatial distribution and attractive triggers of population flows.
The findings reveal significant empirical relationships between population mobility and specific socio-economic and environmental indicators, providing valuable insights into post-disaster mobility dynamics. Population flows were found to be concentrated in neighboring cities where the destruction was less severe, rather than in western cities. This highlights the need for targeted economic, social, and infrastructural interventions in these regions to guide recovery efforts and inform adaptive policies. The study further demonstrates that unplanned relocation to disaster-prone areas can exacerbate social inequalities, both within the affected regions and in the destination areas. Challenges related to employment, labor market integration, and social adaptation in these new environments contribute to deepening socio-economic disparities. The study’s contribution to post-disaster process modeling emphasizes the importance of equitable and inclusive policies to mitigate rather than exacerbate these inequalities. Moreover, the study underscores the necessity of formulating policies that consider the long-term impacts of post-disaster mobility to ensure a more resilient and sustainable recovery process. By addressing these critical dimensions, the research provides a robust framework for developing adaptive strategies that promote resilience and inclusivity in the face of future disasters.
| Keywords | Post-disaster mobility; earthquakes; unplanned relocations; urban resilience; Türkiye |
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| Best Congress Paper Award | No |
