Speaker
Description
Understanding Uncertainty in Planning;
Case study of demographic forecasts in urban plans in Iran
Uncertainty is an intrinsic notion in planning that is mostly recognized as the obstacle in the process of planning and achieving its goals. So planning devoted practice and theory to reduce this unpopular notion and take control of reality. But all the tools introduced to tackle with uncertainty have sides of subjective and normative characteristics and use of power in themselves that sometimes the sole reason of facing uncertainty is not enough to justify them and they seem to be insufficient in a way that they produce even more uncertainty. In this case planning would be in a position of redistributing uncertainty, but even this meaning has its own limitations(Marris,1996). Practitioners may deny or be unfamiliar with the responsibility of its consequences. It will be helpful if planning had a comprehensive narrative of uncertainty that can actually demonstrate what is happening in the planning practice.
This research is interpretive research with a value-oriented approach (Buunk, van der Eidem,2015), with focus on the definition of uncertainty and the tools (in terms of different theories, technologies, or philosophy) being used against it in planning practice. The chosen context is the case study of demographic forecasts in urban plans in Iran. The data were collected from deep interviews with practitioners and discourse analysis.
The literature review delves deep into four introduced approaches to uncertainty in the planning theory and one approach in demographic science, and then goes on to compare them with the the planner’s crafts to tackle with uncertainties. These five categories are:
- Rational and mathematical approach (Myers,2001)
- The technology/ agree-disagree matrix (Christensen,1985)
- Strategic choice (Friend & Hickling,2005)
- Planning as expectation management (Hartmaan,2012)
- Hauntology of urban planning (Gunder,2008)
Analytical philosophy was used in this research as a basic view to certainty and to analyze the meanings that practitioners have for uncertainty. Analyzing interviews and theories lead to a new definition of planning. In this new take on planning, uncertainty does not mean the absence of certainty, but an independent concept that can be present along with it. In this definition uncertainty is an inherent characteristic of planning that made it possible in the first place to plan, and within planning it has always generated the potential of creativity and meaning of power. These insights can be traced back in every step that population forecasts take in the planning process.
Thus, following the narratives that was collected from professionals we can suggest that when speaking of uncertainty in planning, we are not just referring to “uncertainty” itself, but the question is who had the advantage of being “certain”.
References
Buunk, W. W., & van der Eidem, L. (2015). value-oriented approach to discursive analysis of urban and regional planning. In the Routledge handbook of planning research methods (pp. 213-224). Routledge.
Christensen, K. S. (1985). Coping with Uncertainty in Planning. Journal of the American Planning Association, 51(1), 63-73.
Friend, J., & Hickling, A. (2005). planning under pressure: the strategic choice approach (3rd edition ed.). Oxford: Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann.
Gunder, M. (2008). Ideologies of Certainty in A Risky Reality: Beyond The Hauntology of Planning. Planning Theory, 186-206.
Hartmann, T. (2012). wicked problems and clumsy solutions: planning as expectaion management. Planning Theory, 11(3), 242-256.
Marris, Peter (1996). the politics of uncertainty: attachment in private and public life. london: Routledge.
Myers, D. (2001). Demographic futures as a guide to planning. Journal of the American Planning Association, 67, 383–397.
Wittgenstein, Ludwig (1969). On certainty. (D. Paul, & G. Anscombe, Trans.) Oxford: Basil Blackwell
| Keywords | uncertainty; population forecasts; urban plan |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | No |
