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Description
A large number of cities in East Asian metropolitan areas today are facing problems such as over-concentration of population, low fertility rates, aging, and demographic imbalances. This article focuses on the demographic changes, which includes population size and demographic structure，in the four prefectures in Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan over the past two decades and analyses the causes of demographic changes, including migration, births and deaths. It shows that the mobility of human resource is the main effect of demographic shifts.
This article uses the PSM-DID research methodology to explore the effects of policies (including countermeasures against the phenomenon of childlessness, the policy of human resources assistance for graduates, education and childcare policies, work-life balance policies) on the births and movements of the population. The study found that the policy of lesser childbearing is more useful in 2015-2020, while its role is not significant in other years, and the rest of the policies also show different usefulness in different years.
Also, in order to analyze the interaction between decision-making and urban elements in urban planning, a Granger causality model is used to analyze the causality of the population and the other influences to prove that the growth and migration of the population are interacted with the city. It proves that population growth and migration are mutually influential with urban economy, environment, services, facilities, employment. According to the study, in the incremental period, population in-migration is responsible for the rise of the city's economy, whereas in the stock phase, the volume of the city's economy is responsible for population in-migration, and the rate of in-migration levels off as economic development becomes slower.
This article also analyses the spatial autocorrelation of various demographic attributes in the metropolitan area, and then shows whether there is spatial heterogeneity in the implementation of policies, and whether there are spatial spillover effects of urban factors and resources. This study refers to the division of the metropolitan area into five circles, and the results show that the different circles present different levels of policy effectiveness, with an overall distribution of a centralized core with efficient policy implementation and a decentralized external distribution with inefficient policies.
The article also analyses the related content of the Shanghai metropolitan area, for China is also facing the same problems of low fertility rate and high pressure of life, and Shanghai is in a similar economic position in China as Tokyo is in Japan. The author believes that perhaps Tokyo's present is Shanghai's future, and this article can be useful for proper planning measures.
Through comparisons and case studies, the author hopes that this study will be useful for large city metropolitan areas in the world.
References
Chen JiaPeng, Huang KuangShi(2014)Population control in megacities: the Tokyo experience and its inspiration.China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(08):57-62.
Ishikawa Y, Fielding AJ(1998) Explaining the recent migration trends of the Tokyo metropolitan area.Environ Plan A. 1998 Oct;30(10):1,797-814.
Sae Naganuma, Yoshio Arai, Yuji Ezaki(2006)A study of population ageing in the suburbs of the Tokyo metropolitan area.Humanities and Geography, 2006, 58(04) , p. 399-412.
| Keywords | Tokyo metropolitan area; Migration of Population; Demographic Policy; Moran's I |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
