ANNUAL CONGRESS 2025

Analysis of Influencing Factors on Fluctuation of Urban Metro Passenger Traffic--A Case Study of 30 Metro Operating Cities in China

Not scheduled

20m

Yildiz Technical University, Istanbul

Oral Track 03 | MOBILITY

Speaker

Mr Pengyu Chen (Wuhan Institute of Technology)

Description

Currently, there are many articles on the impact of inclement weather on subway passenger flow, but very few of them deal with the impact on the degree of fluctuation of subway passenger flow, and it is crucial to explore the intrinsic causes of the degree of fluctuation for the operation and organization of urban transportation. Based on this, this study analyzes the differences in the effects of precipitation on the degree of fluctuation of metro passenger flow in 30 cities in China and the reasons for the differences. The study used an improved five-item moving average (5MA) method to smooth daily metro passenger flow data in 30 cities to eliminate short-term fluctuations in order to reveal the long-term effects of precipitation on the degree of metro passenger flow volatility. The results show that overall precipitation has a smaller impact on subway passenger flow on weekdays than on rest days in the 30 cities, mainly due to the presence of more people with immediate need for passage on weekdays. Then, the Pearson correlation analysis and random forest regression model are used to compare the 30 cities, and it is found that various attributes of the cities, such as the proportion of the tertiary industry, the degree of topographic relief, and the number of population, have a significant effect on the degree of fluctuation of subway passenger flow under precipitation conditions, and this effect is different between weekdays and weekends. Among them, the proportion of tertiary industry, the degree of topographic relief and population size have a negative effect on the degree of metro flow fluctuation on weekdays, while the proportion of secondary industry has a positive effect on the degree of metro flow fluctuation both on weekdays and weekends, and some socio-economic characteristics have different effects on the degree of flow fluctuation on weekdays and weekends. The results of the study provide important data support and theoretical basis for the optimization of subway system dispatching and urban traffic management strategies in bad weather.