Speaker
Description
Climate risks are becoming increasingly critical as climate change intensifies globally including Italy, where the effects are visible through increase of extreme events such as heatwaves and floods. Addressing climate change requires localized assessments that integrate environmental, socio-economic, and climatic factors to guide targeted adaptation strategies. This study focuses on evaluating climate adaptability and risk across Italy using two composite indices: the Climate Change Adaptability Index (CCAI) and the Climate Change Risk Index (CCRI). Both indices are developed using open data sources, including ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics) and ISPRA (Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research), ensuring broad accessibility. This methodological approach highlights both the potential and the challenges of using publicly available data for urban decision-making.
This contribution utilized GRInS (project titled Growing Resilient, Inclusive, and Sustainable) taxonomy that represents a methodological approach aimed at classifying Italian territories based on their functional and spatial characteristics. By following this methodology, the Italian municipalities are divided into three macro-classes as follows i.e., Inner Italy (Italia Interna), Metropolitan Italy (Italia Metropolitana), and Intermediate Italy (Italia di Mezzo). Each macro-class has micro-classes within.
On one hand, the CCAI (which varies from –1 to +1) measures resilience by balancing exposure to climate hazards with adaptive capacity indicators. Specifically, it incorporates Consecutive days without rain, Duration of hot periods, Average temperature increase (1960–2008), Tree canopy density, and Soil permeability. Results show stark regional disparities: northern Italy demonstrates higher adaptability, particularly in Alpine regions. Conversely, southern regions, including Calabria and Sicily, exhibit lower scores. When analyzed through the territorial typologies, Inner Italy shows mixed adaptability, with remote areas benefiting from natural assets (0.34) whereas denser zones near metropolitan areas (0.05) face challenges. Intermediate Italy varies as well, with coastal areas scoring moderately (0.26) and urban-rural plains showing negative adaptability (-0.13). Metropolitan Italy remains vulnerable, with capitals scoring the lowest (-0.44) due to high exposure and urbanization.
On the other hand, the CCRI (varies from 0.13 to 0.77) evaluates the intersection of climate hazards and socio-economic vulnerabilities. It combines Consecutive days without rain, Duration of hot periods, Average temperature increase from 1960–2008, and the Socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI, another composite index elaborated by the authors) to identify areas of heightened risk. Findings highlight significant challenges in southern and rural areas, where socio-economic fragility compounds climatic stressors. For example, inner Calabria experiences extended dry periods exceeding 40 days, exacerbating its vulnerability. In Inner Italy, sparsely populated areas near metropolitan regions have high values (0.52) due to 31.21 consecutive dry days and SEVI (0.45). In contrast, northern and central metropolitan regions, like Lombardy, show lower risk (0.36–0.40) with shorter dry spells (22.18 days) and stronger economic resilience, though capital cities still face localized risks (0.42) from urban heat and socio-economic disparities.
This dual-index approach also shows the need for place-based strategies. Enhancing natural resilience through reforestation and urban greening, coupled with socio-economic initiatives to reduce inequalities, is critical. The study emphasizes the importance of governance reforms and participatory planning to support equitable climate adaptation, and contributes to methodological advancements for public administrations and urban planners navigating the complexities of urban transformation.
This study emphasizes the innovative integration of positive and negative indicators to support decision-making through assessing territorial vulnerability. By combining natural and socio-economic dimensions, the approach offers actionable insights for enhancing climate adaptability and risk reduction.
| Keywords | Climate change adaptability; climate risk; territorial sustainability; open data; Italy |
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| Best Congress Paper Award | No |
