Speaker
Description
Human-nature relations in urban areas are one of the complex topics in planning discourse. Global challenges like climate change and warming and, in general, living qualities in cities for both humans and nature add another layer of uncertainty to future calculations. Changes in human living conditions, besides their significant economic effects, pose a threat to the social-ecological system of cities. In cities, the decline of biodiversity, the rise in ecosystem disservices, and local social challenges due to heat or disease are examples of this. Mapping social-ecological systems and future scenario makings at national, regional and urban scales are well documented and investigated in the literature. However, local and neighbour scale long-term scenarios regarding human-nature relations need a covering approach to deal with uncertainties and complexities. This research aims to answer the question of how planners in an uncertain local context can uncover long-term future scenarios of social-ecological systems. By building on previous contributions, an improved social-ecological system framework is introduced. The introduced social-ecological systems framework, by integrating ecosystem services and urban biodiversity variables within the conventional structure, introduces a comprehensive mapping system of local human-nature relations at a local park in Milan (Italy) through collaborative sessions with citizens and stakeholders. To unfold long-term future scenarios, the research adapts a dynamic adaptive policy pathway scenario-making strategy. This approach not only uncovers possible pathways to the future based on contextual realities and posed uncertainties but also offers decision-makers a comprehensive view of social-ecological aspects through bottom-up narratives. This research concludes by showcasing the optimal long-term scenario for the case study by implementing local and regional plans within different social-ecological scenarios. Integrating contextual values and local narratives in decision-making, preserving urban biodiversity, covering gradual changes or extreme scenarios, and optimising local policies on re-naturing measures are added values of this methodology in comparison to traditional approaches in scenario making.
| Keywords | scenario-making; social-ecological systems; DAPP; transformative governance |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | No |
