Speaker
Description
Urbanization has facilitated the flow of resources between urban and rural areas, breaking the traditional internal balance mechanism that ensured the mutual adaptation of agriculture, farmers, and rural communities. The relatively closed, self-sufficient rural development model, shaped by the historical relationship between people and land, has transformed into a more open urban-rural social dynamic state. Consequently, rural areas have experienced a continuous decline in their permanent populations, with issues such as population loss and rural hollowing-out increasingly attracting attention. The outflow and shrinkage of rural populations have become inevitable phenomena in the process of socioeconomic development, leading to a shortage of rural labor and an imbalance in rural economic structures. These changes adversely impact food production and security, emphasizing the need to investigate the effects of population decline on farmland protection and food production, particularly in regions such as Northeast China, which is characterized by vast agricultural land and significant rural population decline.
Existing studies have explored rural population shrinkage through the lens of rural hollowing-out, analyzing its formation mechanisms and influencing factors while drawing lessons from developed countries. Some studies employed geographical methods to conceptualize the cultivated area-food-population system and elucidated its operating mechanisms. However, there is a noticeable gap in the literature regarding the evolution mechanisms of this system in regions experiencing rural population shrinkage.
To address this gap, this study focused on Northeast China, a region emblematic of rural population shrinkage, and examined the dynamic changes within its cultivated area-food-population system. The findings revealed that since 2000, the rural population in Northeast China had declined rapidly, with significant inter-county variations. While total grain output had continued to grow, the growth rate had slowed in recent years. The cultivated land area had expanded, with increased concentration and large-scale distribution, demonstrating progress in farmland protection efforts in the region. Moreover, the reliance of food production on cultivated land had intensified, accompanied by a widening regional gap. Shrinking villages, characterized by a continuous decrease in the rural permanent population over two consecutive periods, from 2000 to 2010 and from 2000 to 2010, were classified into four types: population inflow, moderate shrinkage, severe shrinkage, and severe outflow. Each type exhibited distinct characteristics within the cultivated area-food-population system.
Based on these findings, this study proposed planning and regulatory strategies for the cultivated area-food-population system in Northeast China. Key recommendations included maintaining system coordination, recognizing the inevitability of rural population shrinkage, safeguarding the precious and limited cultivated land, promoting technological advancements, and enhancing grain production capacity. These measures aimed to achieve sustainable development and ensured food security in the face of ongoing demographic and socioeconomic changes.
| Keywords | rural population shrinkage;food security;cultivated area-food-population system;Sustainable Food Planning;Northeast China |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | No |
