Speaker
Description
Food security is integral to national economic stability, livelihoods, and sustainable development, serving as a foundation for China’s modernization. The population-cultivated land-food (PCF) system is a complex, semi-open framework operating within specific geographical boundaries. It relies on cultivated land resource utilization, with food production, consumption, and distribution as core components, ultimately aimed at meeting human food needs. At the county level, which is seen as the bridge connecting urban and rural areas, the PCF system influences rural economic sustainability, national food security, and social stability. Exploring the dynamic evolution of this system in China’s counties and formulating targeted planning and regulatory strategies hold significant theoretical and practical value.
Industrialization and urbanization have profoundly transformed China’s county-level population structures, land-use patterns, and food production systems. Variations in natural conditions and urbanization levels have resulted in uneven spatial distributions of population, cultivated land, and food production. Per capita cultivated land generally decreases from west to east, while per capita grain output is higher in central and western regions. Nationally, cultivated land and grain production are concentrated in mid- to low-economic areas, where regional differences in population demand exert significant pressure on agricultural resources. Rapid urbanization has led to labor shortages in rural areas, exacerbating regional imbalances and affecting agricultural sustainability. Simultaneously, the reduction of cultivated land and trends toward “non-grain” and “non-agricultural” land use pose challenges to stable and sustainable grain production.
Despite these challenges, county villages remain vital spaces for grain production and rural labor retention. Addressing food security requires balancing the PCF system while accounting for the region-specific impacts of urbanization and rural development. Achieving this balance demands differentiated planning approaches tailored to diverse local conditions
this study aimed to reveal the internal dynamics of the PCF system through an analysis of its evolution across 1,848 county-level units (excluding urban areas) during 2000, 2010, and 2020. Using an indicator system, it evaluated system coordination and classified rural areas into distinct types based on coupling modes. The cultivated land area, cropping structure, grain planting index, and multiple cropping rates directly influence land-use efficiency, determining grain output and its distribution. Grain output relative to population defines per capita grain possession, distinguishing grain surplus regions from deficit areas. Meanwhile, cultivated land area relative to the rural population reflects the feasibility of large-scale agricultural production. Urbanization-induced shifts in population and land-use patterns emerge as primary drivers of PCF system evolution.
Key findings revealed that, from a total perspective, rural populations had declined significantly, cultivated land areas had increased with greater spatial imbalance, and grain output had generally grown. From an average perspective, per capita cultivated land for rural populations had increased, while per capita grain output exhibited substantial regional variation. The coupling modes of PCF system change—classified as "++," "+-," "-+," and "--"—demonstrated distinct spatial distribution patterns.
Building on these insights, the study proposed targeted planning and regulation strategies for counties with differing coupling modes, emphasizing system coordination. By integrating population, cultivated land, and food dynamics, this research established a dynamic evolution framework for semi-open composite systems. The findings provided theoretical and practical guidance for ensuring cultivated land and food security, promoting high-quality urbanization, and advancing county-level agricultural modernization.
References
Bao, C., & Fang, C. L. (2007). Dynamic Analysis and Regulation Approaches of the Cultivated Land-Food-Population Complex System in the Yangtze River Basin. Chinese Population, Resources and Environment, (02), 115-120.
Ge, D. Z., Long, H. L., & Yang, R. (2018). Research on the Pattern and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Use Transformation in China - From the Perspective of Per Capita Cultivated Land Area. Resources Science, 40(02), 273-283.
Zhang, J., Liu, Y. J., Zhang, E. M., et al. (2023). Dynamic Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land in Chinese Counties. Acta Geographica Sinica, 78(09), 2105-2127.
| Keywords | Food Security;Population-Cultivated Land-Food System (PCF System);Urbanization and Rural Development;Planning Strategies |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
