Speakers
Description
The demographic transition theory, in its broadest definition, refers to the shift from high fertility and mortality rates in the pre-industrial period to low fertility and mortality rates in the post-industrial period (Bloom and Williamson, 1998). As an inevitable outcome of this transition, populations are aging. While developed countries have largely completed this transition, the proportion of elderly populations in developing and underdeveloped countries, although still small, has begun to grow and has reached the early or middle stages of the transition (United Nations, 2023).
This transformation leads to multidimensional changes in education, healthcare, poverty alleviation, urbanization policies, and family structures, bringing about complex and pressing challenges. Demographic changes not only impact macro-level economic processes but also affect the quality of life of elderly individuals and their ability to participate in social life, necessitating the development of new social policies and approaches (Uyanık, 2017). In this context, countries must adapt their healthcare and social systems to align with demographic shifts. However, this poses a significant challenge for many nations.
In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in the relationship between aging, environment, space, and place in aging studies. Two main factors underlie this trend. First is the growing curiosity within the social sciences about space and spatial research. As part of a cultural transformation, social sciences have been undergoing a process termed the "spatial turn," placing greater emphasis on how human experiences are influenced and represented by space. Accordingly, space is conceptualized not only as a physical element but also as a complex symbolic and cultural construct. The second factor is the interaction of spatial studies with simultaneous demographic, social, financial, and technological changes occurring in many countries (Andrews and Phillips, 2005).
In Turkey, the elderly population is increasing at a faster rate than other age groups. Concurrently, the proportion of children and young people within the total population is decreasing. The demographic transition in Turkey has occurred (and continues to occur) over a relatively short time. During this process, factors such as a decline in fertility rates, improvements in primary healthcare and nutrition, increases in average life expectancy, and the control of early-age mortality have reshaped the population's age structure. Despite the historically young population structure of Turkey, as evidenced by its previously high fertility rates, the country is on the cusp of a demographic shift toward an aging population. This transition is underscored by the approaching 10% proportion of the elderly within the total population (ASPB, 2020).
Despite these demographic changes in Turkey, the relationship between the elderly population and space remains under-researched. The literature lacks a detailed analysis of the elderly population in Turkey in spatial and temporal contexts, highlighting this as an under-researched area. In this context, the study aims to reveal the spatial distribution patterns of the elderly population in Turkey through spatial and temporal modeling.
The research examines the population data of neighborhoods and villages—the smallest administrative units with a population aged 65 and over—in Turkey between 2013 and 2023. As part of the spatio-temporal modeling process, hotspot analysis and temporal trend analysis were utilized to identify patterns and trends over time and space.The study’s hotspot analysis aims to spatially identify areas where population density has significantly increased or decreased at the neighborhood level, while the temporal trend analysis reveals trends of population growth or decline over time. The combined use of these methods enables a detailed analysis of both spatial concentration regions and population change trends in these areas, providing significant outputs for future socio-spatial planning and policy development.
References
ASPB (2020). Yaşlı nüfus: Demografik değişimi. Available at: https://www.aile.gov.tr/media/45354/yasli-nufus-demografik-degisimi-2020.pdf.
Bloom, D.E. and Williamson, J.G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), pp.419–455.
Andrews, G.J. and Phillips, D.R. (2005). Geographical studies in ageing: progress and connections to social gerontology. In: Ageing and Place. Routledge, pp.7–12.
United Nations (2023). World Population Ageing 2023: Challenges and opportunities of population ageing in the least developed countries. Available at: https://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-population-ageing-2023-challenges-and-opportunities-population-ageing-least (Accessed: 20 May 2024).
Uyanık, Y. (2017). Yaşlılık, yaşlanan nüfus ve sosyal politika. İş ve Hayat, 3(5), pp.67–100.
| Keywords | Demographic Change, Elderly Population, Mobility, Spatial-Temporal Modeling |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | No |
