Speaker
Description
Collaborative scenario-building is a well-established methodological approach that is particularly effective for anticipating and analysing unexpected long-term futures. It enhances the legitimacy of contemporary decision-making processes by engaging the public and facilitating interactions with other stakeholders (Goodspeed, 2020). Traditionally, future scenarios are communicated through narratives, descriptions, projections, 2D maps, sketches, and spatial simulations. However, these visualisation methods present certain limitations that hinder public engagement. For instance, the visual language of 2D cartography reduces the public’s ability to immerse themselves in future scenarios; quantitative projections and diagrams are often too complex for a broader audience; and future-oriented narratives can be too abstract to communicate long-term changes effectively.
To address these challenges, this research integrates Virtual Reality (VR) as an innovative tool for scenario communication, enhancing the public understanding of future scenarios. An experiment was conducted with 60 randomly selected participants to examine public perceptions of VR future scenarios and identify key factors influencing immersive experiences and scenario interpretation. A future scenario called “Urban Dystopia” was 3D-modelled and projected using VR devices. The scenario is shaped by a distressing increase in insecurity in urban areas. High crime and robbery rates have led to a drastic shift in the modal split, with private cars becoming the prevailing choice for daily trips, including commuting, shopping, and leisure activities. Participants engaged with the immersive VR scenario for approximately 15 minutes and then completed a questionnaire covering various thematic sections: (i) socio-economic characteristics & personality statements, (ii) Individuals’ VR experience, (iii) scenario design factors, and (iv) scenario perception statements. A total of nine logistic regression models were conducted, each corresponding to a scenario perception statement (dependent variable) included in the questionnaire. Each model used explanatory variables related to socio-economic characteristics, personality statements, scenario design factors, and individuals’ VR experience.
The results suggest that certain variables, mainly related to scenario design factors, individuals’ VR experience, and socioeconomic characteristics, facilitate a better understanding of the ‘Urban Dystopia’ scenario. In particular, women and car owners demonstrated a stronger ability to interpret the scenario’s characteristics. Similarly, individuals who perceived social problems and insecurity within the 3D scene also exhibited a better understanding of the ‘Urban Dystopia’ scenario. Additionally, scenario design factors such as the presence of vegetation, building characteristics, and the inclusion of vehicles and people in the scene contributed to higher interpretation scores. Conversely, personality-related variables were not found to significantly enhance scenario interpretation. Overall, VR is recognised as a promising tool for scenario-building applications. The findings provide valuable insights for researchers and policymakers, helping them refine the translation of scenario narratives and 2D maps into 3D scenes. This, in turn, can lead to a more effective interpretation of scenarios by the public, ultimately fostering more efficient collaborative planning processes.
References
Goodspeed, R. (2020) Scenario planning: Embracing uncertainty to make better decisions. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
| Keywords | Scenario-planning; virtual reality; collaborative planning; participation |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
