Speaker
Description
The concept of urban shrinkage originates from the stagnation or recession of population, economy, and land use in the process of de-industrialization in Germany. The various shocks faced by the post-growth era made urban shrinkage gradually become a common challenge facing the world. Unlike simple population loss, the shrinkage of non-core cities in urban agglomerations is more manifested as mobile shrinkage in the context of competition. As a relatively independent collection of urban communities, urban agglomerations are characterized by the flow of population factors between regions and the evolution of population structure within cities.
Based on the urban shrinkage in the context of China, this paper explores the shrinkage phenomenon and causes of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The shrinkage areas are identified from the multi-dimension of ' population-economy-space ', and the regression model is used to explore its influencing factors. The shrinkage time law, spatial pattern, and population structure changes of urban agglomerations with different development processes are compared and analyzed. Try to take the two major urban agglomerations as an example to explore what kind of shrinkage differences between mature and developmental urban agglomerations in their development stages? What is the reason for this difference?
Research has found significant differences in the spatial distribution characteristics of shrinking areas between the two major urban agglomerations. The shrinkage changes of the two major urban agglomerations showed an opposite trend between 2000-2010 and 2010-2020. The number of shrinking cities in the Yangtze River Delta decreased and the degree of shrinkage increased, while the number of shrinking cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River increased and the degree of shrinkage decreased. The shrinkage of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration shows an ' edge-core ' structure. The shrinkage mainly occurs in the marginal zone, and the stage shrinkage is the main one. The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River shows a ' node-circle ' structure. The shrinkage mainly occurs in the outer circle of regional central cities, and the potential shrinkage is the main one.
Further explore the importance of rational allocation of resource elements among large, medium, and small cities. As the other side of urbanization, urban shrinkage needs to optimize the redistribution of urban elements under the structure of ' urban agglomeration-metropolitan circle-small and medium-sized cities '. Urban agglomerations at different stages of development should be classified and guided: mature urban agglomerations should respond to policy assistance in marginal areas; cultivated urban agglomerations should promote the integration of core cities and strengthen the differentiated competitiveness of various regions. At present, most urban agglomerations have not yet formed a good cooperative relationship between population and economic development. As an important development leader, urban agglomerations urgently need to seek the balance and coordination of their development in the era of negative population growth and seek the sustainable development of cities in the context of globalization and regional integration.
| Keywords | negative population growth; urban shrinkage; urban agglomeration; regional differences |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
