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In China's long-term planning practice, the mainstream development concept has been growth-oriented, which has led to the neglect of shrinkage phenomena. However, with the intensification of China’s low fertility and ageing trends, the population has entered an overall negative growth phase. Many metropolitan areas of China are already experiencing various degrees and types of shrinkage. For China, the logic of urbanization dominated by traditional growth mode may no longer be applicable. China's urban development has ushered in a post-growth era.
Chinese scholars have paid relatively little attention to shrinkage in economically developed regions. And the research on shrinkage mainly focuses on cities, with less attention given to shrinking towns. However, towns are typical areas in China's urbanization process that face population loss, ageing, and hollowing out, experiencing the dual impact of natural population decline and out-migration. Population structure has a profound impact on a region's economic growth and long-term competitiveness, which will determine whether a region’s shrinkage is temporary or long-term. At the same time, Martinez-Fernandez et al. (2014) proposed that shrinking cities may also exhibit a gradual weakening or even interruption of connections with the flowing space, but there has been little research on this theoretical speculation. Compared with urban network, there is little research on the characteristics of urban-rural network. The emergence of mobile signalling data has also made dynamic monitoring of population mobility networks possible.
This study focuses on the Shanghai metropolitan area, an economically developed region in China with frequent economic activities and strong network connections, and uses towns as the research units. First, population shrinkage towns are identified based on changes in population numbers. Then, by utilizing massive amounts of mobile phone signalling data, the study constructs the urban-rural and town-town population commuting mobility networks in the Shanghai metropolitan area. These networks represent the mobility characteristics of the region's main labour force. Combined with the population travel portraits, the number of population flows between urban areas and towns as well as the age and gender characteristics are identified. The study analyzes the population flow and structure characteristics of shrinking towns and categorizes these towns.The research results show that some areas in cities such as Nantong, Zhoushan, Ningbo, and Huzhou in the Shanghai metropolitan area exhibit more concentrated local shrinkage phenomena. Most shrinking towns have weaker population connections with other regions in both urban-rural and town-town population mobility networks, indicating a shortage of labour force, with a distinct "depression" phenomenon in the spatial network. Compared to towns with population growth, most shrinking towns have a larger proportion of elderly people in their commuting population, with a lower proportion of young adults. Additionally, the proportion of middle-aged and elderly males is relatively high, suggesting that most shrinking towns lack the momentum for population development and may face long-term shrinkage. However, a small number of shrinking towns have stronger connections with other regions and a higher proportion of young and middle-aged people in their floating population, indicating that they still have development potential. Therefore, based on these different characteristics, the study categorizes shrinking towns into four types and analyzes the main influencing factors, proposing corresponding planning strategies.
This study adopts a population mobility network analysis approach to reveal the characteristics and patterns of the floating population in shrinking areas of the Shanghai metropolitan area. It explores the development dynamics and influencing factors of shrinking regions, addresses the issue of ageing in towns, and re-examines urban-rural interactions. The findings provide a reference for local governments in formulating targeted population policies, optimizing regional resource allocation, and promoting coordinated regional development.
References
Martinez-Fernandez, C., Audirac, I., Fol, S., and Cunningham-Sabot, E. (2012)'Shrinking cities: urban challenges of globalization', International Journal of Urban and Regional
Research, 36, pp. 213–225. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.2011.01092.x
| Keywords | Population structure; Floating population; Shrinking area; Network analysis |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
