Speaker
Description
Facilitating the adoption of innovative adaptation strategies by populations at risk is one of the major challenges that public authorities will be facing over the coming decades. For example, rising sea levels and the recognition that millions of additional individuals will be exposed by 2100 underscore the growing relevance of managed retreat as a viable option (Haasnoot, Lawrence and Magnan, 2021). This transformative approach, which changes the way cities are designed (by prioritising the risk constraint in planning), plans are drafted (by creating specific zoning) and space is used (by encouraging prevention through signage), is leading to a rethinking of the relationship humans-environment. By moving built infrastructures out of harm's way in anticipation, it is also leading to a rethinking of planning processes. However, how can we plan the retreat, putting homes, businesses and people safe in the long-term ? How choices are made to deal with long-term uncertainty in planning can be questioned : are these choices made objectively or are they guided by political considerations, which may result in prioritising development needs in at-risk areas in order to meet short-term needs ?
It would seem, given the regular press articles denouncing new projects in risky areas, that the latter option tends to prevail. However, a closer look at the subject reveals the diversity of situations at different scales. Several approaches can be differentiated according to the vulnerability of the regions, the risk culture, or political context. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews conducted since 2023, this study compares national and local approaches to coastal adaptation by planning in France and New Zealand to understand how uncertainty is managed. France, with its centralized governance system, has historically relied on rigid regulatory instruments to manage risks. The implementation of managed retreat as part of the National Strategy for Integrated Coastline Management (Ministère de l’Écologie, du Développement durable, des Transports et du Logement, 2012) reflects a growing recognition of the need for proactive and preventive spatial planning. However, the rigidity of the regulatory framework prevents a degree of adaptability in planning documents : in fact, the regulatory mille-feuille is regularly criticised. Responses to this lack of flexibility were provided by the 2021 Climate and Resilience Act, but no results have yet been seen.
In contrast, New Zealand presents a more decentralized approach, characterized by strong local autonomy and a distinctive cultural dimension driven by Māori values. The introduction of dynamic adaptive policy pathways (Lawrence et al., 2019) into local strategy development processes signals a paradigm shift. The public authorities are relying on a method of decision making under deep uncertainty, derived from Dutch research. However, the non-binding nature of these tools is questionable given the long-term issues involved in adapting these vulnerable areas.
Today, planning is not a process of adaptation, but a means of development and land control. With climate change, regulatory processes such as spatial planning will have to be reinvented and transformed. On the coast, it is no longer possible to develop in the same way as at the beginning of the century because of the pressure of erosion and sea level rise, and sometimes retreat is already necessary. In order to cope with these dynamic forces, France and New Zealand will probably have to change the way they plan. This paper aims to illustrate the paradigm shifts occurring in coastal adaptation planning in both countries through specific case studies. It argues for an urgent reevaluation of planning models to better address the challenges of climate change and coastal vulnerability, emphasizing the necessity of adaptive and forward-looking approaches in spatial planning.
References
Haasnoot, M., Lawrence, J. and Magnan, A.K. (2021) Pathways to coastal retreat, Science, 372(6548), pp. 1287–1290. [Online] available at: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi6594.
Lawrence, J. et al. (2019) Chapter 9. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP): From Theory to Practice, in V.A.W.J. Marchau et al. (eds) Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice. Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 187–199. [Online] available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2.
Ministère de l’Écologie, du Développement durable, des Transports et du Logement (2012) Stratégie nationale de gestion intégrée du trait de côte : Vers la relocalisation des activités et des biens. La Défense, p. 20. [Online] available at: https://webissimo.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/sngitc_20120301_cle211b7c.pdf.
| Keywords | retreat ; uncertainty ; France ; New Zealand ; transformation |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
