Speaker
Description
Extreme phenomena caused by climate change have led to an increasing intensity and frequency of precipitation events, gradually becoming normalized. In light of these rising flood risk challenges, most urban area engineering structures remain the prevailing flood risk management strategies to reduce the impact of flooding. However, the short-term effectiveness of these structural measures in alleviating flooding may create a false sense of safety, which can lower people's risk perception, ultimately leading to an increase in risk over time. This paradoxical phenomenon is known as the "levee effect" (White,1958； Burby, 2006； Ding et al., 2023). However, whether the change in risk perception caused by this levee effect is consistent across all groups or whether it varies due to heterogeneous individuals of the groups is worth further investigation.
The methods of risk analysis are usually based on objective measures, but subjective risk assessment, such as risk perception, is still currently considered a crucial aspect in the context of flood risk management (Kellens et al., 2011). Risk perception describes how an individual 'assesses a threat's probability and damage potential,' and its variation is influenced by individual conditions, including education, age, societies' views, knowledge, and disaster experience (Babcicky & Seebauer, 2016). Research on the levee effect and risk perception shows that residents in the 'Floods continuing' group had higher levels of Flood awareness and risk threat assessment; on the contrary, residents in the 'Floods slowing' group had lower levels of flood awareness and risk threat assessment(Chang et al., 2022). However, within these groups, there may still be differences in risk perception due to heterogeneous individuals. Therefore, in flood risk management, risk perception should consider individual conditions and further classify the differences in risk perception across different groups to formulate appropriate strategies for specific local groups.
The purpose of this research is to explore the impact of heterogeneous individuals on risk perception in the context of the levee effect and develop adaptive strategies suitable for different types of groups. The study focuses on Tainan City, Taiwan, as the empirical research area. First, the relevant literature is reviewed to summarize the evolution of urban flood control strategies, and the impact of engineering structures flood mitigation measures on risk perception. A questionnaire is designed based on past flood management approaches and risk perception measurement indicators. Spatial analysis is used to identify the concentration of flood-prone areas and the spatial distribution of flooding events, which serve as the potential spatial scope of the levee effect for the survey. Finally, through cross-tabulation analysis, groups with similar individual characteristics are classified and compared, identifying the factors most influential on risk perception and the differences in risk perception across different groups.
This study aims to address the neglect of heterogeneous individuals in flood risk management. The focus is on areas affected by the levee effect, exploring the differences in risk perception among different groups when facing flood risks. It is hoped that by understanding the characteristics of other groups, driving policies suitable for their features can be designed, risk awareness can be enhanced, and effective flood risk mitigation measures can be taken to provide more precise adaptive management and planning policy references for future flood risk management.
References
Babcicky, P. and Seebauer, S. (2016). The two faces of social capital in private flood mitigation: opposing effects on risk perception, self-efficacy and coping capacity. Journal of Risk Research, 20(8), pp.1017–1037. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2016.1147489.
Burby, R.J. (2006). Hurricane Katrina and the Paradoxes of Government Disaster Policy: Bringing About Wise Governmental Decisions for Hazardous Areas. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 604(1), pp.171–191. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716205284676.
Chang, H.-S., Su, Q. and Jheng, D.-C. (2022). Comparing the spatial patterns of flooding and individual risk perception: A case study of Yunlin, Taiwan. Urban Climate, 45, p.101260. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101260.
Ding, M., Lin, P. R., Gao, S., Wang, J. D., Zeng, Z. Z., Zheng, K. H., . . . Liu, Y. (2023). Reversal of the levee effect towards sustainable floodplain management. Nature Sustainability. doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01202-9
Kellens, W., Zaalberg, R., Neutens, T., Vanneuville, W. and De Maeyer, P. (2011). An Analysis of the Public Perception of Flood Risk on the Belgian Coast. Risk Analysis, 31(7), pp.1055–1068. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01571.x.
White, G. F. (1958). Changes in Urban Occupance of Flood Plains in the United States. University of Chicago.
| Keywords | Keywords, Levee Effect；Risk Perception；Adaptive Strategies；Flood Risk Management；Cross-tabulation Analysis |
|---|---|
| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
