Speaker
Description
Carbon Emission Intensity (CEI) has become a critical constraint indicator for China's national economic and social development. The Urban Spatial Layout Changes (USLC) resulting from urbanization can significantly influence CEI. This paper constructs a comprehensive model to examine the relationship between USLC and CEI in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration and proposes targeted planning optimization strategies. The study first evaluates the multi-dimensional characteristics of regional USLC and CEI, giving full consideration to socio-economic development. USLC is comprehensively described through ten factors across four dimensions: Scale Index (SI), Urban Structure Index (USI), Change Intensity Index (CII), and Spatial Morphology Index (SMI). CEI is calculated using the Chinese High-Resolution Emission Database (CHRED) and GDP data. Next, a geographic detector is employed to compute the explanatory weight of each USLC index on CEI. Finally, a coupled coordination model between USLC and CEI is constructed, and the Urban Spatial Layout Carbon Intensity Efficiency (LCCEIE) index is calculated. This index measures the impact and efficiency of urban spatial layout changes on carbon intensity in different regions of the BTH urban agglomeration. The results show that: (1) USLC has a significant impact on CEI, with SI and USI playing a major positive role, while SMI can effectively mitigate the increase in CEI. Additionally, the explanatory power of USLC on CEI varies across cities at different stages of development. (2) High LCCEIE values are distributed along a horizontal axis from Shijiazhuang-Baoding-Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Qinhuangdao. (3) In recent years, the LCCEIE values of the two mega-cities in the BTH urban agglomeration have decreased, as they are in a phase of urban shrinkage. The proportion of land allocated to secondary and tertiary industries is a key factor influencing CEI during this phase.
This study integrates the LCCEIE assessment results into the planning of the BTH urban agglomeration as a reference for decision-making. The discussion covers strategies such as industrial land distribution, adjustments to urban settlement networks, and revisions to development boundaries, offering insights for optimizing the high-quality development of regional urban spatial planning.
| Keywords | Urban Spatial Layout Changes;Carbon Emission Intensity;Coupled Coordination Model;Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration |
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| Best Congress Paper Award | Yes |
